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After a 12-day military confrontation with Israel, Iran’s leadership appears to be intensifying its domestic crackdown, moving quickly toward a deeper form of isolation and authoritarianism.
Kasra Aarabi, director of IRGC research at United Against Nuclear Iran, described this transformation as a shift toward “a North Korea-style regime of isolation and repression.” Speaking to Fox News Digital, Aarabi warned that the level of domestic control being implemented is far beyond anything previously witnessed.
“The regime has always exhibited authoritarian traits, but what we’re seeing now is a level of suppression that’s unparalleled,” Aarabi said.
I. A Nation Under Siege from Within
1. Heightened Surveillance and Fear
An Iranian source confirmed to Fox News Digital that the government’s clampdown has become “terrifying.” Aarabi, who maintains active contacts inside Iran, said the authorities are randomly stopping citizens, seizing their phones, and inspecting them for any content deemed sympathetic to Israel or critical of the regime. “If such content is found, people simply vanish,” he stated.
2. North Korea-Like Control
Aarabi noted that this new wave of fear mirrors the extreme control tactics used by North Korea. During the latest round of hostilities, the Iranian government imposed a total internet shutdown, not only blocking Israeli evacuation messages but also flooding the media with propaganda that portrayed Israel as indiscriminately attacking civilians.
II. Censorship as a Weapon
1. Information Blackout to Mute Dissent
“The internet blackout was intentional,” Aarabi explained. “It served two goals: silencing the population and distorting public perception. For four days, no messages went in or out—even critical safety alerts from Israel couldn’t reach civilians.”
2. Suppressing Pro-Israel Sentiment
He added that early in the war, many Iranians were quietly supportive of Israel’s strikes, recognizing them as attacks on the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC)—the very force responsible for domestic oppression. But once the blackout began, uncertainty and fear clouded public opinion.
III. Repression as a Survival Tactic
1. Authoritarianism Intensifies
Dr. Afshon Ostovar, a prominent Iran expert and author of Vanguard of the Imam, argued that repression remains the regime’s most effective survival mechanism. “It’s far easier for them to clamp down on their own people than to resolve external conflicts,” he said. “A more inward-looking, autocratic Iran—much like North Korea—may be the regime’s chosen path to preserve itself.”
2. Preventing Uprising Through Fear
Ostovar believes the regime sees widespread suppression as the only way to prevent mass resistance. “They’re tightening their grip to ensure that the public cannot rise up against them,” he said.
IV. Fractures Within the Regime
1. IRGC Faces Internal Turmoil
Aarabi revealed that the recent military setbacks have triggered a crisis of confidence within the IRGC. He suggested that such attacks could not have happened without internal infiltration. “There’s now intense pressure to purge suspected insiders,” he said.
2. Radical New Generation Gaining Ground
According to Aarabi, a newer, more hardline generation of IRGC officers—many of whom joined after 2000—are rising to prominence. Their training emphasizes ideological loyalty, and some have even accused senior commanders of being too lenient toward Israel or of collusion with foreign intelligence.
3. Khamenei Loses Grip on Extremists
Ironically, Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei fostered this deeply radical faction to consolidate his power. Now, Aarabi claims, they have become more extreme than he intended and are increasingly difficult to control.
V. A Riskier, More Aggressive IRGC
1. Power Shift to Younger Commanders
A looming purge within the IRGC could elevate younger, less experienced leaders with a higher tolerance for risk. This shift may result in more erratic and dangerous behavior, both at home and abroad.
2. Asymmetric Warfare Becomes Primary Strategy
Aarabi warned that with its traditional military capabilities—militias, missiles, and the nuclear program—either dismantled or weakened, Iran may now lean heavily on asymmetric tactics, particularly low-profile acts of terrorism that offer plausible deniability.
Conclusion
Despite the outward show of strength through repression, Aarabi believes the regime’s actions reveal its vulnerability. “If Iran’s leadership were truly secure, it wouldn’t need to crush its own people so violently,” he said. While the streets remain quiet under the weight of fear, the current conditions make real political change in Iran highly unlikely—at least for now.
