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As Kenyans prepare to mark the first anniversary of last year’s dramatic storming of parliament, nationwide demonstrations are planned for Wednesday to remember those who died during the anti-government taxes protests. However, hopes for a solemn commemoration are tempered by fears that the day may once again descend into chaos.
I. PLANNED COMMEMORATION FACES RISKS OF ESCALATION
1. A Unified Call to Remember
Rights activists, families of victims, and young people—who led last year’s protests—have organised both in person and online for a day of remembrance. Opposition leaders have dubbed June 25 a “people’s public holiday.” In Nairobi, marchers plan to walk toward parliament and State House, laying flowers and lighting candles in tribute. Yet, these intentions are overshadowed by worries that peaceful mourning may devolve into unrest.
2. Police Warn and Pro-Government Voices Threaten
Ahead of the rallies, the government has cautioned against any attempts to disrupt public peace. Nairobi police chief George Seda urged demonstrators to remain calm and avoid infringing on others. In contrast, some of President William Ruto’s allies issued stark warnings. David Ndii, Ruto’s economic adviser, took to social media with a chilling remark: protesters should “say your goodbyes before you leave home” as violence could erupt.
II. ROOT CAUSES: ANGER OVER PAST AND PRESENT GOVERNANCE
1. Revisiting Last Year’s Turmoil
The June 2024 protests erupted over proposed tax hikes in the Finance Bill. Initially nonviolent, they escalated as police confronted demonstrators, leading to over 60 deaths, reports of disappearances, and an attempted storming of parliament. President Ruto subsequently withdrew the bill and reshuffled his cabinet to include the opposition. But the wounds remain raw.
2. New Triggers, Continued Resentment
The unrest this month was reignited by the death of teacher-blogger Albert Ojwang while in custody—allegedly over social media comments. A subsequent incident in which police shot vendor Boniface Kariuki near point-blank range added fuel to the fire. Issues such as corruption, joblessness, government overreach, and cost-of-living pressures—all central to last year’s uprising—persist.
III. PUBLIC DESPAIR AND CALLS FOR CHANGE
1. Widespread Distrust Among Youth
Political analyst Mikhail Nyamweya notes that young Kenyans’ trust in government has eroded significantly. Despite promises, they view Ruto’s administration as unresponsive and quick to suppress dissent. Ongoing reports of human rights abuses only reinforce the feeling that little has improved in the past year.
2. Contemporary Manifestations of Disquiet
Similar to last year, protests are expected in major cities beyond Nairobi—Mombasa, Kisumu, Nakuru—and digital campaigns are underway. Vigils were held Tuesday night, reflecting widespread engagement. But the presence of “goons” – groups allegedly hired to disrupt protests—has emerged once more, with activists warning they may provoke violence.
IV. LOCAL AND GLOBAL OUTSPOKEN SUPPORT
1. Appeals for Unity and Protection
Human rights groups have called on Kenyans to show solidarity and self-protection. Lawyer Hanifa Adan urged demonstrators to stand as “brothers and sisters,” warning of potential interference and police brutality.
2. International Backing for Peaceful Assembly
Diplomatic envoys from 12 countries, including the U.S. and U.K., issued a statement affirming Kenyans’ right to peaceful expression. They urged all parties to allow safe demonstrations and to refrain from violence. Locally, the Catholic bishops’ conference joined the call for restraint and condemned excessive police force, declaring, “A society that instils fear in its youth for simply speaking out is a society walking away from justice,” according to Archbishop Anthony Muheria.
V. MEMORIES OF VIOLENCE AND CENSORSHIP
1. Heavy-Handed Policing and Media Blackouts
Last year’s protests were marred by the deployment of teargas, water cannon, and live ammunition. In Nairobi, State House and parliament were barricaded with razor wire. Media coverage was restricted Tuesday evening, with broadcasters instructed to stop live feeds—though courts later permitted resumption. The crackdown included talk of “terrorism disguised as dissent,” prompting comparisons to authoritarian tactics.
2. Tales from the Streets
Eyewitnesses report stone-throwing, barricades, arson, and looting in Nairobi and other towns. Reports vary, with at least eight to sixteen people killed and hundreds injured, many from bullet wounds. Reuters confirmed 16 deaths, mostly from police gunfire, and over 400 casualties.
VI. A NATION AT A CROSSROADS
1. Escalating Tensions Demand Action
Kenya is grappling with a volatile mix of historical memory and present-day grievances. As the youth assert themselves, the risk of a repeat of last year’s violence looms large. Political rhetoric, including menacing messages from within government circles, raises alarms.
2. Opportunity for Dialogue
This anniversary is not just a remembrance—it’s also a test. The government faces a crucial choice: double down on suppression or engage with protesters. If authorities can facilitate safe, peaceful expression and initiate meaningful reforms, the day may prove pivotal in healing national wounds.
Conclusion
Kenya’s anniversary march holds both commemorative and catalytic potential. It stands as a poignant reminder of past victims, but also lays bare unresolved societal fractures—unemployment, injustice, and police violence. The government’s response now may define whether June 25 serves as a turning point toward constructive dialogue or a precursor to further turmoil.
